25iq

My views on the market, tech, and everything else

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A Dozen Things I have Learned from Barry Ritholtz about Investing

As part of my “A Dozen Things I’ve Learned” series of blog posts I thought I would take on a list put together by Barry Ritholtz . My self-assigned task is to add my support to what Barry wrote http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/ritholtzs-rules-of-investing/, while staying with my usual 999 word limit for any given blog post.  The task I assigned to myself is to elaborate on what he has written (rather than just repeating what […]

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A Dozen Things I’ve Learned About Investing from John Maynard Keynes

  1. “As time goes on, I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes.” Keynes started investing on behalf of King’s College in 1924 and because he believed he knew a lot about macroeconomics, he made a lot of macroeconomic-based bets.   During […]

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A Dozen Things I’ve Learned About Strategy, Business and Investing From Michael Porter

  1.            “In many companies strategy is built around the value proposition, which is the demand side of the equation.  But …it’s [also] about the supply side.” In his classic “Five Minute University” routine on Saturday Night Live the comedian “Father Guido Sarducci” pointed out: “Economics? Supply and Demand. That’s it.’” What Michael Porter did after graduating from Harvard Business School was to go across the Charles River and get […]

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A Dozen Things I’ve Learned About Investing from Howard Marks

1. “The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.”  Psychological mistakes are at the same time the biggest source of danger for an investor and the biggest source of opportunity when other people succumb to those mistakes.  If you can keep your head about you when everyone else is losing theirs, you can profit in ways which beat the […]

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A Dozen Things About Investing I’ve Learned from George Soros

  1. “Money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” George Soros, like other great investors, is very focused on “expected value.” Expected value is equal to the weighted-average value for the distribution of possible outcomes (the payoff for a given outcome is multiplied by the probability that this outcome will occur). A bet which is unexpected by the crowd is only wise when the expected […]

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A Dozen Things I’ve Learned About Investing From Peter Lynch

  1. “Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market.  Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.” It is far more productive for an investor to focus their time and energy on systems which are potentially understandable in a way which might reveal a mispriced asset. George Soros said once: “Unfortunately, the more […]

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A Dozen Things I‘ve Learned About Technology Investing

1. “Payoffs from research are from Extremistan; they follow a power-law type of statistical distribution, with big, near-unlimited upside but, because of optionality, limited downside.” Nassim Taleb.  http://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Gain-Disorder/dp/1400067820/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1372633921&sr=8-1&keywords=antifragile    Valuing a technology company is uniquely hard.  The probability of any company encountering a positive or negative Black Swan is impossible to compute since you can’t assign a probability to an unknown “future state.” It is simply not mathematically possible. And […]

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