My views on the market, tech, and everything else


A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Mason Hawkins about Investing (Plus Tren on Value Investing)

I’ve done more than 25 of these “Dozen Things” posts now and I feel the commentary by me is getting repetitive.  If you want commentary on what Mason Hawkins said below, read what I said on the other posts.   I thought that instead of specific commentary on these quotations below from Mason Hawkins I would write a more general paragraph of commentary on value investing trying to “omit needless words.” […]

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A Dozen Predictions from Tren Griffin for 2014

  1. CNBC will continue to lose viewers by trying to make its programming similar to ESPN’s Sports Center, even though that approach is *exactly* what sends ordinary investors to their financial doom and *ensures* that ordinary investors will stop watching CNBC (i.e., the CNBC ratings death spiral will continue). 2. The Zero Hedge blog will continue to push people to buy precious metals even though it is particularly well […]

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A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Marty Whitman/Third Avenue about Investing

1. “The cheaper you buy, the greater the potential investment reward.”  This is a simple idea which many investors do not understand since they are driven to buy when “Mr. Market” is euphoric since the human instinct is to follow the crowd.  Fighting this herding instinct is a trained response. As James Montier of GMO said his past week: “The golden rule of investing: no asset (or strategy) is so good that you […]

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A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Jason Zweig about Investing

1. “The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be.” Value investors *price* assets based on their value *now* (based on data from the present) rather than make predictions about markets in the *future.*  Value investors put predictions about the future in the “too hard” pile. 2. “A stock is not just a ticker […]

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A dozen things said by Jesse Livermore that apply to investing even though he was a speculator

1. “An investor looks for safety… The speculator looks for a quick profit.” Livermore is saying that what differentiated him and other speculators from investors was: (1) a willingness to make bets with short duration and (2) not seeking safety.  Anyone reading about Livermore must remember that he was not a person who often/always followed his own advice. He eventually shot himself leaving a suicide note which included the sentence: “I am a failure.” 2. […]

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A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Bruce Berkowitz About Investing

1.  “We don’t predict. We price. Predictions are terrible.”  Value investors put predictions, especially macroeconomic predictions, in the “too hard” pile. Ben Graham and his disciples have developed a system which avoids doing things that are “too hard.”  Looking at data from today, rather than a prediction about tomorrow, the value investor “prices” the asset and makes the investing decision. The key question is simple: what would a private buyer pay […]

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Two Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Bill Miller and Mohnish Pabrai about Investing

Pairing a post about Bill Miller with a post about Mohnish Pabrai is useful since it contrasts the investment thesis of Miller with someone else who is a self-professed “cloner” of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.  In other words, how Bill Miller’s investing thesis differs from the value investing orthodoxy is useful to consider. Bill Miller: 1. “In the complex adaptive system that is the stock market … there will be dominant narratives that most everyone agrees with and that […]

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